The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that President Adama Barrow will win the upcoming December 5 presidential election, securing a significantly reduced majority. The EIU forecasts Mr. Barrow, currently serving his second term, will seek re-election and win by a "wafer-thin margin." The EIU stated that "his undelivered electoral promises on constitutional and security reforms, alongside limited economic opportunities, especially for the youth population, is likely to translate into a decline in voter share compared with the previous election, in December 2021, when he won 53 percent of the vote." The unit added, "Overall, the efforts of opposition parties continue to be clouded by fragmentation rather than strengthened by unity, thereby reinforcing our core view that opposition fragmentation will hand Mr Barrow a re-election win.”
Reasons for Declining Support
Mr. Adama Barrow's popularity is declining, a trend attributed to unfulfilled electoral promises. Undelivered commitments on constitutional and security reforms, coupled with limited economic opportunities, particularly for young people, are expected to reduce his voter share. Local opinion polls conducted in early 2026 indicate that the National People's Party (NPP), Mr. Barrow's party, is likely to secure the support of 34 percent of the voting population. The United Democratic Party (UDP) is projected to garner 14.7 percent of the vote. Critically, approximately 60 percent of the population remains either undecided or supports independent candidates, according to these same early 2026 surveys. This substantial undecided segment suggests a volatile electoral landscape ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
Opposition Landscape and Fragmentation
The political opposition in The Gambia has engaged in efforts to consolidate ahead of the upcoming election. The Unity Party (UP), alongside six other political parties, initiated discussions aimed at forming a strong coalition. Separately, six other parties united behind United Democratic Party (UDP) leader Ousainu Darboe, establishing the UDP-led Grand Coalition Front (GFC). Meanwhile, a rival faction, Coalition 2026, has emerged, led by the United Movement for Change (UMC). Coalition 2026 reportedly comprises the UMC and eight other political groupings. Some of these groups are new and are not yet registered political parties with The Gambia's election commission. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) maintains that this fragmentation among opposition parties will ultimately contribute to President Adama Barrow securing a re-election victory.
EIU's Analytical Rigor
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) operates as a sister company to The Economist weekly newspaper of London. The organization bases its analysis on the expertise of a global team. This team includes economists, industry specialists, policy analysts, and consultants, contributing to its assessments.
Election Outlook
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) recently published a special report titled "Two Year Forecast: Gambia." This report, released a few weeks ago, details the organization's economic and political projections for the country. The EIU, a sister company to The Economist weekly newspaper of London, bases its analysis on insights from a global team of economists, industry specialists, policy analysts, and consultants. Their assessments contribute to the unit's outlook on the upcoming presidential election and other key developments in The Gambia. The report's findings indicate a challenging political landscape.