The process of coalition-building among opposition parties is viewed as complex, with observers expressing little optimism for a meaningful outcome, according to reporting. Indeed, the author of this report views the coalition-building process as complex and was not optimistic about a meaningful outcome. Significant gaps exist between the various parties, particularly concerning the selection of a flagbearer for a potential alliance. These gaps between parties are notably wide, especially regarding the key issue of flagbearership. The rivalry between the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the UNITE party is actively undermining efforts during ongoing coalition talks. The deep divisions and lack of consensus on leadership are seen as hindering the formation of a unified front capable of challenging President Adama Barrow's re-election prospects.
UDP's Internal Strife and UMC Formation
The United Democratic Party (UDP) and UNITE have not reconciled their differences following a bitter divorce. Nearly ten months after internal UDP political turmoil, Mayor Talib Bensouda and key party figures departed, leading to the formation of the United Moral Congress (UMC). Adherents of the UMC believed Mayor Talib Bensouda was the most viable candidate to lead the UDP into the 2026 presidential elections. UMC adherents argued that Darboe should step aside in favor of Talib Bensouda. Darboe, however, emerged as the UDP's candidate following the party's internal democratic processes. Disagreement over who would lead the UDP was the principal reason for Talib Bensouda and his aides branching out to form their own party. The UMC is now a registered political party and is actively participating in coalition talks, adding another voice to the already crowded and fragmented opposition landscape.
Coalition Stumbling Blocks
The United Democratic Party (UDP) has maintained that its candidate would lead any coalition formed to oppose President Adama Barrow, regardless of whether the alliance is party-led or candidate-led. This firm stance shows a significant point of contention within the opposition. The UDP asserts its electoral strength, citing that it holds the majority of elected representation and possesses tested structures, which it views as critical advantages in any national contest. The party claims a solid base of at least 200,000 loyal supporters, a figure it attributes to the 2021 elections. Additionally, the UDP points to its top position among opposition parties in the most recent CepRass polling as evidence of its standing and why its candidate should lead.
However, the UDP has since withdrawn from the ongoing coalition talks, a move that has further complicated the already challenging process. The process has been reportedly hampered by rhetoric, ego, and chest-beating among various opposition party leaders and their supporters. These elements are described as defeating factors in the efforts to forge a unified front, preventing genuine collaboration and consensus-building. Further complicating matters, opposition parties are engaging in mutual degradation and abuse across various public platforms, including media interviews, panels, rallies, and social media debates. This public infighting not only erodes trust among the parties but also diminishes public confidence in their ability to govern effectively. The constant bickering and personal attacks overshadow any substantive policy discussions or shared vision for the nation's future.
Consequences for 2026 Election
President Adama Barrow is likely to be re-elected for a third term if opposition parties do not recognize each other's strength and view the country's future beyond individual ambitions. The deep divisions and lack of consensus on leadership within the opposition are seen as significant impediments to forming a unified front. The ongoing rivalries, particularly between the United Democratic Party (UDP) and UNITE, coupled with the UDP's withdrawal from coalition talks, show the challenges. These internal struggles and the emergence of new parties like the United Moral Congress (UMC) further fragment the opposition landscape, making it increasingly difficult to present a united and credible alternative to the incumbent. The continuous public degradation and abuse among opposition parties, evident in media interviews, panels, rallies, and social media debates, only serve to weaken their collective standing. Without a cohesive strategy, a shared vision for leadership, and a willingness to compromise, the ability to mount a credible challenge against President Barrow in the 2026 elections appears diminished, paving a clearer path for his potential re-election.