A new opinion poll conducted ahead of The Gambia's December 2026 presidential election indicates President Adama Barrow has a significant lead. The survey, carried out between July 27 and August 10, 2026, projected President Barrow with a 51 percent chance of winning the December 5 election. The findings offer an early look at voter sentiment concerning the upcoming presidential contest in the West African nation. This full survey provides key insights into the political landscape just over two years before citizens head to the polls.
Presidential Race Breakdown
Opposition leader Ousainu Darboe is polling second with 23 percent of the vote, according to the poll. Darboe, a prominent figure in Gambian politics, trails President Barrow by a considerable margin in this early assessment. Talib Bensouda secured 12 percent support among respondents, positioning him as a notable contender in the race. Essa Faal registered one percent in the survey's findings, indicating a smaller base of support at this stage. Mamma Kandeh also recorded one percent support in the survey, placing him alongside Faal in terms of current voter preference. Other candidates combined also accounted for one percent of the projected vote share, suggesting a fragmented landscape beyond the top three contenders. A significant portion of the electorate, 11 percent of respondents, remained undecided regarding their choice for the December 2026 election, noting a potential area for candidates to gain ground in the coming months.
Regional Support and Trends
President Adama Barrow holds a lead in seven Local Government Areas (LGAs), according to the poll, demonstrating broad geographical support. His strongest showing was recorded in Basse, where he secured an impressive 67 percent of support from respondents. Barrow also drew 60 percent in Banjul, the nation's capital, reinforcing his popularity in urban centers. In Janjangbureh, he maintained strong backing with 59 percent. These figures show his current dominance across several key regions.
Mansakonko was the sole LGA where opposition leader Ousainu Darboe led Barrow, marking a significant regional stronghold for the opposition. In Mansakonko, Darboe received 46 percent compared to Barrow’s 36 percent, indicating a notable preference for the opposition leader in that specific area. In Kerewan, the support was more closely contested, with 42 percent of respondents selecting Barrow, while Darboe received 36 percent. This notes the varied political landscape across The Gambia's administrative divisions.
The poll also indicated a clear trend in support for Barrow's potential third term, which has seen a steady increase over the past year. Support for President Barrow rose from 35 percent in August 2025 to 46 percent in August 2026, suggesting growing public acceptance or enthusiasm for his continued leadership. Darboe’s support also saw an increase during the same period, rising from 19 percent in August 2025 to 31 percent in August 2026. This indicates that while Barrow's lead is substantial, Darboe is also building momentum among the electorate.
Pollster's Caveats and Methodology
The survey was conducted by Gambia Participates, a reputable organization, which disclosed its findings on Friday at its office in Kololi. The organization stated it targeted only individuals possessing valid voters’ cards for the poll, ensuring that the sample accurately reflects the eligible voting population. Gambia Participates interviewed a substantial number of people, with 1,556 individuals participating across all 53 electoral constituencies. This extensive reach across the country's electoral divisions aims to provide a representative snapshot of national sentiment. The rigorous methodology, including the focus on registered voters and broad geographical coverage, lends credibility to the poll's projections for the upcoming presidential election.